CricEdge's AI prediction engine generates win probability for Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings using a gradient-boosted machine learning model trained on over 160,000 T20 cricket matches. Pre-match probability is calculated from the ELO rating gap between the two teams, recent form over the last five matches, venue-specific win-rate history at Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi, and phase-level batting and bowling strength metrics.

IPL matches at Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi carry their own historical factors embedded in the model — average first-innings score, powerplay scoring rate, batting-first vs. chasing win percentage, and dew-factor adjustments for day-night matches. These combine with real-time team form data to produce the pre-match probability shown above.

During the match, the win probability updates ball by ball as the CricEdge ONNX runtime processes each delivery. Significant swings — typically more than 10 percentage points — mark decisive moments: key wickets, batting acceleration phases, or required run rates crossing critical thresholds. The probability tracks the actual game state in near real time.

ELO ratings for both Delhi Capitals and Chennai Super Kings update after every completed IPL match. A team winning against a higher-rated opponent earns more ELO points than beating a weaker side. The full ELO leaderboard is available on the CricEdge stats pages, allowing you to track team strength movements across the entire IPL season.